This month we share a summary of the 2021 Federal Budget, plus our regular lending, property, and economic updates.

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May 2021 Newsletter
Federal Budget Summary 2021

In this special report, our Head of Professional Standards & Technical Services, Craig Meldrum, looks at the key takeouts from the federal budget and what it means for individuals and businesses for tax, superannuation and social security that may impact wealth creation and retirement funding strategies for Infocus’ advisers and clients.

The macro

On Tuesday, 11 May 2021, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg handed down the 2021-22 Federal Budget. It was his third Budget but more interestingly, this was the second “Covid” budget and unsurprisingly did not reprise any of the catch-cries of “debt and deficit” or “return to surplus” from the pre-Covid era (which seems a long time ago now). With a Federal election looming next year, and in what the ABC’s political correspondent, Andrew Probyn, referred to as the “hot chocolate budget”, this budget had all the hallmarks of a pre-election cash-splash with more spending to ensure a continued recovery out of the Covid-fueled economic black hole.

Given the massive challenges for both the federal and state governments in managing the health impacts of the pandemic, including various random state-based outbreaks (generally from hotel quarantine), the further economic impacts to tourism and education while the borders remain closed and the slow pace of the vaccine rollout, Australia has actually done much better than expected. Last year’s federal budget predicted a deficit of $213.7 billion which was forecast to fall to $66.9 billion by 2023-24, representing 36% of GDP. Treasury has recast those figures and forecast a better, but still eye-watering deficit of $161 billion, reducing to $57 billion by 2024-25.

Total net debt was expected to reach $703 billion this year and was forecast to peak at a record $966 billion by June 2024. Those figures have now reduced to $617 billion, representing 30% of GDP and expected to peak at $980.6 billion in 2025 (40.9% of GDP). Australia’s successful transition out of its debt-fueled recovery does rely on a few assumptions including having the entire population fully vaccinated, re-opening the borders and continuing to enjoy the tax receipts from China’s strong demand for our iron ore. The continued rollout of the vaccine and strong fiscal policy are expected to see real GDP grow by 5.25% during the 2021 year, (after it fell by 2.5 per cent in 2020).

Australia has also rebounded well with its unemployment figures. After initially forecasting a Covid-induced unemployment rate of up to 15%, Australia is currently sitting at 5.6% which Treasury has forecast will fall below 5% by late 2022 and should reach 4.75% in the June quarter of 2023. Like last year, this budget is all about continuing to build business confidence and create more jobs. Businesses can benefit from further tax incentives for investing in innovation and the instant asset-write off will continue. The Treasurer also made big spending commitments on infrastructure, housing and traineeships to further boost job creation.

The Government has also put more of a focus on women in this budget, following the establishment of a dedicated taskforce earlier this year, with measures targeted towards women’s safety, economic security, and health and wellbeing.

The government has committed $1.9 billion to a Women’s Economic Security Package, including $1.7 billion flowing towards an increased childcare subsidy over five years, for families with second and subsequent children aged five years and under.

Noting that women generally have a lot less in their superannuation than men by the time they retire, the Government has also scrapped the $450 per month minimum income threshold for eligibility for superannuation guarantee contributions from employers, benefiting low-income workers.

Besides further spending to implement the comprehensive Digital Economy Strategy and a range of measures in health, the Government has dedicated $17.7 billion to improving the aged care system following on from the recent royal commission into aged care, including adding 80,000 new HomeCare places (275,000 in total). Further big-ticket items include $13.2 billion for the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) and $2.3 billion towards a National Mental Health and Suicide Prevention Plan.

More detail on a few of the measures

Personal taxation

There were no changes announced to the Government’s already-legislated three-stage tax plan that was announced in 2018 and enhanced in 2019. As a reminder;

  • Stage 1 amended the 32.5% and 37% marginal tax brackets over 2018-19 to 2021-22 and introduced the Low- and Middle-Income Tax Offset (LMITO);
  • Stage 2 was designed to further reduce bracket creep over 2022-23 & 2023-24 by amending the 19%, 32.5% and 37% marginal tax brackets; and
  • Stage 3 was aimed at simplifying and flattening the progressive tax rates for 2024–25 and increasing the Low-Income Tax Offset (LITO). The Government estimated that around 95 per cent of taxpayers would be on a marginal tax rate of 30% or less (as shown in the tables below).

3 Stage Tax Plan

Tax rates (2017-18)

Thresholds

Tax rates (2018-19 to 2021-22)

Thresholds

Nil

$0 – $18,200

Nil

$0 – $18,200

19%

$18,201 - $37,000

19%

$18,201 - $37,000

32.5%

$37,001 - $87,000

32.5%

$37,001 - $90,000

37%

$87,001 - $180,000

37%

$90,001 - $180,000

45%

$180,000 +

45%

$180,000 +

LITO

Up to $445

LITO

Up to $445

LMITO

-

LMITO

Up to $1,080

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tax rates (2022-23 & 2023-24)

Thresholds

Tax rates (2024-25) onwards

Thresholds

Nil

$0 – $18,200

Nil

$0 – $18,200

19%

$18,201 - $45,000

19%

$18,201 - $45,000

32.5%

$45,001 - $120,000

30%

$45,001 - $200,000

37%

$120,001 - $180,000

-

-

45%

$180,000 +

45%

$200,000 +

LITO

Up to $700

LITO

Up to $700

LMITO

-

LMITO

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Stage 3 personal income tax cuts will proceed as originally planned, commencing on 1 July 2024. The tax rate above taxable income of $45,000 will drop from 32.5% to 30%, and the rate of 45% will apply above $200,000, eliminating the 37% tax bracket.

The LMITO will be extended to 2021–22. Originally legislated for 4 years, the LMITO was then reduced to 2 years and due to end on 30 June 2021. The 12-month extension means it will end 30 June 2022. The rates and thresholds remain unchanged.

The reduction in tax provided by LMITO will remain at $1,080 per annum ($2,160 for dual-income couples) with the base amount at $255 per annum for the 2020-21 income year.

Taxable Income (TI)

LMITO

$0 – $37,000

$255

$37,001 - $48,000

$255 + ([TI - $37,000] × 7.5%)

$48,001 - $90,000

$1,080

$90,001 - $125,999

$1,080 - ([TI - $90,000] × 3%)

$126,000 +

Nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In another personal tax measure, the $250 threshold for self-education expenses is to be removed.

Superannuation

Superannuation, which was fairly well ignored in last year’s budget, got some needed tweaks but no wholesale changes. The following provides a short summary on each of the proposed measures.

The Work Test

Since 1 July 2020, the work test is required to be satisfied by those aged 67–74 (65–74 before 1 July 2020) to make voluntary contributions to superannuation. However, it was announced that the work test will be removed completely. This measure is expected to take effect from 1 July 2022.

Interestingly (or frustratingly), there is still no sign of the extension of the Non-Concessional Contribution (NCC) Cap bring forward measure (the bill that is still stuck in the Senate sought to align the bring forward contribution rules with the provision that removed the work test for 65 and 66 year olds where the Total Super Balance is below $300,000). With the work test scrapped, it is not known whether the bring forward rule will now be opened up for eligible contributions above 65.

$450 per month minimum income level for SG support

As mentioned above, the current minimum income threshold of $450 per month will be removed. The measure is expected to start from 1 July 2022. This means lower income earners, many of them women, will become entitled to superannuation guarantee support regardless of their level of income.

At the same time, the Budget did not contain any change to the legislated Super Guarantee rate increase from 9.5% to 10% for 2021-22.

Downsizer contributions

The age for making downsizer contributions (up to $300,000 of proceeds per member of a couple from selling the principal residence of at least 10 years) will be reduced from 65 to 60. This measure is expected to take effect from 1 July 2022. Downsizer contributions are not included in the NCC cap.

First Home Super Saver Scheme

As well as some technical amendments, the maximum amount of voluntary contributions that can be released under the First Home Super Saver Scheme will increase from $30,000 to $50,000. This measure is expected to take effect from 1 July 2022.

SMSF and SAF residency requirements

The residency requirements for SMSFs and small APRA funds will be relaxed by

  • extending the central management and control test safe harbour from 2 to 5 years for SMSFs; and
  • removing the active member test for both fund types.

This measure and is expected to take effect from 1 July 2022.

Early release of super to victims of family and domestic violence

The Government will not proceed with a measure to extend early release of superannuation to victims of family and domestic violence. The measure was previously announced on 21 November 2018.

Conversions of legacy income streams

Individuals will be permitted to exit certain legacy retirement income stream products (excluding flexi-pensions or lifetime products in APRA-funds or public sector schemes), together with any associated reserves, for a 2-year period. Any commuted reserves will not be counted towards an individual's concessional contribution cap. Instead, they will be taxed as an assessable contribution for the fund.

Superannuation thresholds from 1 July 2021 to 30 June 2022

Threshold type

Amount

Transfer Balance Cap

$1.7 million

Concessional Contribution Cap

$27,500

Non-concessional Contribution Cap

$110,000 or $330,000 over 3 years

Low rate cap

$225,000

Untaxed Plan cap

$1,615,000

Account based pension payments

50% Covid reduction to minimum payment standards ended

Superannuation Guarantee

10%

Maximum Super Contribution Base

$58,920 (per quarter)

Government Co-contribution ($500)

Lower income threshold - $41,112 Upper income threshold - $56,112

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Social Security and Aged Care

The budget did not contain any large social security measures.

Pension Loans Scheme (PLS)

The Government has announced that they will be increasing the flexibility of the Pension Loans Scheme (PLS) by allowing participants to access up to two lump sum advances in any 12-month period up to a total value of 50% of the maximum annual rate of the aged pension.

The total PLS is currently around $12,385 per year for singles and $18,670 couples (combined). The Government has also announced it will introduce a No Negative Equity Guarantee which means that when the house is sold, the Government will not claim back more than the sale price of the house used to guarantee the payment

Family Home Guarantee

The new Family Home Guarantee will allow single parents with dependants to purchase a home with as little as a 2% deposit.

Aged Care

The Government will invest a total of $17.7 billion on aged care reform over five years, including:

  • $6.5 billion for 80,000 additional Home Care Packages over the next two years;
    • $798.3 million for to provide greater access to respite care services and payments to support carers;
    • $7.8 billion for a new funding model for residential aged care, with a $10 per person per day supplement of the Basic Daily Fee;
    • $189.3 million over four years from 2020-21 to implement the new funding model, the Australian National Aged Care Classification (AN-ACC); and
    • $117.3 million to support structural reforms, including the implementation of a new Refundable Accommodation Deposit (RAD) Support Loan Program.

Business taxation

A welcome announcement was an extension to the measure announced in the 2020 Budget that was designed to improve cash flow and to encourage new investment to support the economic recovery whereby eligible assets (including new depreciable assets and the cost of improvements to existing eligible assets, and for small and medium-sized business, second-hand assets) acquired from 7:30pm (AEDT) on 6 October 2020 and first used or installed by 30 June 2022, could be fully expensed in year of first use. The Government will extend temporary full expensing for 12 months until 30 June 2023.

Further, eligible businesses with an aggregated turnover of less than $5 billion can deduct the cost of eligible depreciating assets of any value acquired from 7:30pm (AEDT) on 6 Oct 2020 and first used or installed ready for use by 30 June 2023. Normal rules will apply from 1 July 2023. The Government also announced that it will extend loss carry back for eligible companies by 12 months to allow them to carry back losses from 2022–23 to offset tax paid on profits as far back as 2018–19 when they lodge their 2022–23 tax return.

The Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) will be given the power to pause or modify ATO debt recovery action in relation to disputed debts of small businesses. This is expected to improve efficiency by keeping these matters out of the courts.

Conclusion and where to from here?

Moving on from the 2020 budget, which was loaded with the largest injection of economic stimulus Australia has ever seen to “keep the ship afloat” during the economic calamity wrought by the pandemic, the 2021 budget has continued on with the theme of further economic stimulus and with all the trimmings of a pre-election cash splash ahead of next year’s election. It has enough sweeteners to woo a broad range of voters, but we’ve seen it does rely on continued economic activity, full vaccination and growing business and consumer confidence, which will be turned on its head if Australia doesn’t maintain its keen focus on managing the virus.

Similar to last year, the Government will continue to pull the fiscal levers to generate jobs and provide the tax incentives to foster business and individual confidence to invest and grow. 

As with all budget announcements, the measures are proposals only and need to be enacted by Parliament.

If you have any specific questions, please contact your financial adviser.

General Advice Warning

The information in this presentation contains general advice only, that is, advice which does not take into account your needs, objectives or financial situation. You need to consider the appropriateness of that general advice in light of your personal circumstances before acting on the advice. You should obtain and consider the Product Disclosure Statement for any product discussed before making a decision to acquire that product. You should obtain financial advice that addresses your specific needs and situation before making investment decisions. While every care has been taken in the preparation of this information, Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd (Infocus) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. Infocus does not guarantee any particular outcome or future performance. Infocus is a registered tax (financial) adviser. Any tax advice in this presentation is incidental to the financial advice in it.  Taxation information is based on our interpretation of the relevant laws as at 1 July 2020. You should seek specialist advice from a tax professional to confirm the impact of this advice on your overall tax position. Any case studies included are hypothetical, for illustration purposes only and are not based on actual returns.

Infocus Securities Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 47 097 797 049) AFSL No. 236 523.

Lending update

Recently, we have seen a number of lenders review their interest rates.

Some increasing fixed rates, whilst other have been lowering variable rates. Record-low interest rates mean it is an ideal time to look around for a better deal on your home loan lending. 

Interest rates are generally the most common benchmark when looking for a better deal. Most borrowers are able to achieve a blended rate in the low 2% range as there are still a number of fixed rate products below the 2% mark.  However, when searching for a new product solution, brokers consider more than just the interest rate. Many borrowers request different kinds of products that might be able to assist them in repaying their loan sooner, or a better way of structuring their debt to reduce the loan term of their owner occupier lending, without any changes to their cashflow. 

Research suggests that Australians are saving more since the beginning of the pandemic. Additional repayments or offset accounts are a great way to reduce interest totals, whilst accumulating savings. Almost all clients request the ability to contribute additional repayments, hence a combination of fixed and variable products can be offered to achieve low rates, with required flexibility. 

 

Economic update - May 2021

Within this month’s update, we share with you a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe. 

Markets reach new highs

  • US economy remains very strong supported by massive stimulus spending
  • Australian economy continues to see a strong post major lock-down recovery
  • Monetary and fiscal policy in US and the rest of the world underpinning markets
 
The Big Picture
 
There is little doubt that the US economy is doing much better than previously thought but the US Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) is not inclined to slow it down. It is important that the Fed is gentle with its policy communications. The markets like what they are hearing and they are showing that with very large gains on Wall Street and the ASX 200.
 
At the start of April, President Biden announced his $US 2 trn infrastructure package that would further stimulate the economy. He also announced an increase in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% after Trump cut it from 35% to 21% four years ago. A month later, Biden is still struggling to work the bill through Congress. Most want the ‘hard’ infrastructure investment such as roads and bridges but some argue there is too much ‘other’ expenditure in the bill.
 
Of course, there is kick back against the corporate tax rate hike. US Treasury Secretary Yellen has called for a global floor for corporate tax rates. Trump attracted a lot of business back to the US from lower tax rate locations. Biden and Yellen are worried about reversing that flow with a tax hike. Given that the EU cannot co-ordinate its member-countries’ fiscal policies we see little chance of the US orchestrating global minimum tax rates. The solution seems to be a more modest tax rate hike and a commensurate cut in recommended expenditures.
 
Biden gave a speech to a joint sitting of Congress marking his first 100 days in office. He rightly claimed success in vaccinating the population to date. 220 million have been vaccinated against his previously-thought ambitious target of 100 million made in January.
 
Biden also launched another multi-trillion-dollar expenditure package for families on paid leave, childcare and the usual social payments. To pay for this package, he is proposing to increase the capital gains tax (CGT) rate from 20% to 39.6% for those earning more than one million dollars per year. This tax hike too is likely to meet a lot of resistance. And as one guest on CNBC noted, ‘there are a lot of millionaires on both sides of the aisle in Congress.”
 
On hard data, US economic growth for the first quarter came in at 6.4% compared to an expected 6.1% (annualised growth rates). Retail sales were up 9.8% against an expected 6.2% and 916,000 new jobs were created against an expected 675,000. The unemployment rate is down to 6.0%. House prices were up 12% on the year which is the best result in 15 years.
 
These data points were strong enough to make long bond yields react at first in fear of rate hikes but they have since settled down again. As Fed chairman Powell noted, there are still 8.4 million jobs that were lost at the start of the pandemic which are yet to be re-filled. There is a lot of slack to catch up, but the pace of growth is very welcome. 
 
Companies, too, have been playing their part. Quarter one US reporting season is well under way and many of the results have been spectacular. Big banks, IBM, Amazon and Facebook amongst many others massively beat earnings expectations. Importantly, revising these past earnings estimates upwards has reduced the seemingly over-pricing (in P/E ratios) that some thought were looking a bit high. It’s not surprising that Wall Street reached several new highs throughout April!
At home, it appears that consumers and businesses are unusually happy. The Westpac consumer sentiment index was the highest since April 2010 and the NAB business confidence index was at its highest level ever. Our unemployment rate fell to 5.6% which is not that much above the pre-COVID rate of 5.2%. 70,700 new jobs were created but they were nearly all part-time.
 
Our CPI inflation rate came in at 1.1% for the year against an expected 1.4% and the Reserve Bank (RBA) target range of 2% to 3%. There is no appetite at the RBA to hike rates any time soon.
 
China’s economic data was more mixed in the latest postings. Economic growth was a spectacular 18.3% but 19% had been expected because of the shut-down a year ago. Retail sales growth was a proper beat at 34.2% compared to an expected 28%. Industrial production was a slight miss.
 
The UK is recovering from a blip down in January’s exports owing to the initial impact of Brexit. February’s exports were strong enough to just about wipe out the January loss. On the other hand, Europe is really struggling largely because of the pandemic effect. Europe just entered a double dip recession.
 
The UK took a firm approach to tackling COVID after an initial failure by imposing strict lock-downs and a massive vaccination program. Serious disease and death rates plummeted as result of the government action. People are now allowed to go to pubs and cafes etc, providing they drink outside! Boris Johnson still expects to open the economy by mid-June. We have not yet heard of any adverse effects of having relaxed the lock-down policy.
 
In Australia, our vaccination policy is still in a state of flux – to put it mildly. Our infection rates are very low by international standards but our vaccination rate is also very low. With vaccination hubs now Government policy, it is possible that our vaccination rate will start to climb.
 
Sadly, some countries are really suffering from COVID – particularly India where infection rates went above 300,000 new cases a day. At the other extreme, just about every adult in Israel is now fully vaccinated.
 
Naturally, we still think our, and the US economies and markets may experience some bumps along the way but the overall direction is still up. Our January 1 forecasts for the ASX 200 and the S&P 500 are still very much on track. US monetary and fiscal policy generally provide strong underpinning of stock market activity.
 
Asset Classes
 
Australian Equities 
On the back of very strong commodity prices in April, the materials sector of the ASX 200 had a particularly strong month (+6.8%) – as did the IT sector (+9.7%). Indeed, most sectors, except for some of the defensive ones, (staples, telcos and utilities) did well.
The broader index grew by 3.5% in April which was roughly in line with major overseas benchmarks. For the year-to-date, the index was up 6.7%. We do not see the index as being particularly overly-priced in the short to medium term.
 
International Equities 
The S&P 500 reached fresh all-time highs again at the end of April. This index had a very strong month (+5.2%) along with the London FTSE (+3.8%) and Emerging Markets (+2.5%). 
 
There is little doubt that accommodative monetary policy and the fiscal stimulus is working to support equities. Since we do not see any change in policy this year the major ‘known risks’ to equities are impositions of lock-downs to combat COVID.
 
Bonds and Interest Rates
The US 10-yr bond yield surge in February, March and early April has abated. From a high of close to 1.75%, the yield fell to 1.5% and has been tracking from 1.5% to 1.65% since. The Fed, after its April meeting, reiterated its lower for longer policy and that it will give plenty of warning about any changes.
The important difference between the new and old Fed policy is that they are now going to react only to actual changes in inflation rather than expectations. The latest inflation read was above 2% as the next one is also expected to be. However, Powell believes these two numbers will mark temporary highs due to price fluctuations at the beginning of the pandemic. These words soothed markets.
 
The RBA is facing low inflation and it shows no intention of changing policy any time soon. Rates are lower for longer here too.
 
Other Assets 
Prices of the major commodities (copper, iron ore and oil) had risen strongly in April. Iron ore prices at $US 188 / tonne seem to be defying gravity – up by 17.5% in the year-to-date. Copper and Oil prices are up 27.6% and 33% respectively over the same period.
The Australian dollar appreciated by 2.3% against the $US over the month of April to nearly $US 0.78, but has only gained 1.0% for the year-to-date.
 
Regional Review
 
Australia
The unemployment rate fell again for March (the latest data) to 5.6% with 70,700 new jobs having been created. Since more people are now employed than before the pandemic, this is a real gain. The Westpac and NAB business indicators report a country of people confident in business and consumption more so than at any time in over ten years.
 
The future will depend heavily on how we react to outbreaks of COVID infections and the speed at which we re-open our economy. The original plan for vaccinations is in disarray and the government is being cagey about how much vaccine of each type is actually available at this point.
Providing we don’t open up the borders, our rate of infection can easily be contained with selective small lock-downs even without any more vaccinations. However, if we open our borders too quickly, we will have a problem. 
 
The public seems to have lost trust in the vaccination policy owing to the switching of which people and age groups should receive each vaccine. The original reports on the AstraZeneca (AZ) vaccine revealed only modest rates of efficacy. Indeed, it was also reported in April that the CEO of AZ had spent all of his time in Australia since before Christmas until April visiting his family – not a good look when your company is based in Oxford and it is facing difficulties in communication.
Since AZ was widely used in the UK, their infection rates – now that the economy is opening up – will give us some real-time efficacy data.
 
China 
The manufacturing and services PMI’s came in strongly at the end of April: 51.1 for manufacturing and 54.9 for services, suggesting expectations for both sectors are improving.
 
Because it is about a year since the big lock down in China, data are contaminated by base effects. The annualised growth figure was 18.3% but that only translated to 0.6% for the quarter – a little bit weak for China!
 
Relations between China and Australia show no signs of healing. Australia is paying the price for having taken a stand against China on a number of important issues. The US shows no signs of repealing the Trump tariffs on China’s exports to the US. Meanwhile, military tensions remain in the South China Sea.
US
Biden seems to be changing his stance from being a moderate in the run-up to the November election to a ‘progressive’ now. He has been trying to get trillions of dollars of funding for everything from stimulus cheques to infrastructure to childcare. 
 
He claims to be only targeting tax increases on companies and people earning over $400,000 per year. That’s a lot of weight on the shoulders of the rich and they won’t like it.
 
Biden seems to be getting closer to making bigger moves than either Trump or Obama. Perhaps these changes are what is needed but if he moves too quickly, he could upset some of his support base.
 
Economic data suggest the economy is charging along but it hasn’t yet caught up with the pre-COVID data. Although 220 million have received at least one injection of vaccine, he is now starting to come up against anti-vaxxers and the sceptics. The economy is not yet across the line to achieve herd immunity but it is heading in the right direction. 
 
Europe 
Europe is struggling under the weight of COVID and its economic data do not look good. Indeed, it entered the second dip of a double dip recession at the very end of April. The UK, on the other hand, seems to be breaking away from Europe with determination. The new COVID plan seems to be working and some of the economic data are bouncing back.
 
Rest of the World
India is facing a tragic set of circumstances with a lack of supplies, beds and over 300,000 new COVID infections a day. Other countries, such as Brazil and Chile, are also experiencing a lot of problems but the scale is so much bigger in India.
 
Japan is still trying to go ahead with the Olympics against advice from the medical community. It is hard to see the events going ahead without COVID outbreaks. There are plenty of fully vaccinated people around the world – including a Brisbane hospital worker – who still get infected. It will be a long time before the world returns to normal.